Gold prices declined in the domestic futures market on July 2, primarily due to profit booking at higher levels and caution ahead of key US payroll data. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), August gold futures fell to ₹97,160 per 10 grams after gaining over 1% in the previous session on the back of a weak US dollar.
As of 9:10 AM, MCX Gold August contracts were trading 0.07% lower at ₹97,185 per 10 grams, slipping from the previous close of ₹97,251.
The decline followed a sharp rise on Monday when the dollar index dropped to a three-year low of 96.38, pushing gold prices higher. However, remarks by US Fed Chair Jerome Powell—suggesting inflation may be impacted by tariffs and that interest rates could stay elevated—tempered the bullish sentiment.
Despite Powell's cautious tone, many analysts continue to believe that the US Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates as early as September, with the potential for two rate cuts in 2025.
Recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings in May rose to 7.77 million, the highest since November, further intensifying focus on the labor market. The ADP employment report due today and nonfarm payrolls data expected Thursday are likely to shape Fed rate expectations going forward.
Investors are also closely monitoring US trade negotiations with India and Japan. According to Reuters, Donald Trump expressed confidence about reaching a deal with India but remained doubtful about a similar agreement with Japan.
Experts suggest that gold prices may stay in consolidation mode in the absence of strong new triggers. Volatility is expected, especially due to swings in the dollar index and geopolitical developments.
“We anticipate gold and silver to remain volatile this week. Ahead of the US job data, we recommend booking profits on long positions,” said Manoj Kumar Jain, of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.
According to Jain:
Gold (International): Support at $3,327–3,309, resistance at $3,366–3,384 per troy ounce
Silver (International): Support at $35.80–35.55, resistance at $36.30–36.60 per troy ounce
MCX Gold: Support at ₹96,850–96,400, resistance at ₹97,600–98,000
MCX Silver: Support at ₹1,06,000–1,05,450, resistance at ₹1,07,400–1,08,000
